Google Trends: Economic Leading Indicators

Don’t blame the messenger.

A new study by cruxanalytics.com analyzed Google Trends data across all 50 states, comparing searches between January and March 2024 to June and August 2025. Searches for “business loan” grew by 23% across the country, while “cash flow” searches grew 28%. And “going out of business” searches increased by 7% over the same time period, according to the report.

Reverse Engineering the Simulation

If we’re living in a simulation, what does the source code look like?

# -----------------------------
# CONSTANTS (fundamental)
# -----------------------------
c := speed_of_light
G := gravitational_constant
ħ := reduced_Planck_constant
kB := Boltzmann_constant
π := pi
ζ3 := zeta(3)
k := 0 # spatial curvature (flat ΛCDM, early era)
Λ := 0 # negligible in radiation era

# Radiation coefficients
α_rad := (π^2/15) * (kB^4 / (ħ^3 * c^5)) # energy density const: ργ = α_rad T^4
β_rad := (2*ζ3/π^2) * (kB^3 / (ħ^3 * c^3)) # number density const: nγ = β_rad T^3

# -----------------------------
# STATE VARIABLES (functions of t)
# -----------------------------
a(t) : scale_factor
H(t) : Hubble_parameter = (d/dt a)/a
T(t) : radiation_temperature
ργ(t) : photon_energy_density
nγ(t) : photon_number_density
fγ(ν,t) : photon_occupation_spectrum

# -----------------------------
# AXIOMS / DYNAMICS (radiation-dominated FRW)
# -----------------------------
Friedmann:
H(t)^2 = (8πG/3) * ργ(t) + (Λ/3) - k * c^2 / a(t)^2
Radiation_equations:
ργ(t) = α_rad * T(t)^4
nγ(t) = β_rad * T(t)^3
Adiabatic_expansion:
a(t) * T(t) = const # entropy per comoving vol ~ const
Planck_spectrum:
fγ(ν,t) = 1 / (exp[ (ħ ν) / (kB T(t)) ] - 1)

# -----------------------------
# INITIALIZATION (“Let there be light”)
# -----------------------------
LetThereBeLight(t0, T0):
a(t0) := a0 # choose gauge (often a0 = 1)
T(t0) := T0 # ultra-hot; photons in thermal equilibrium
ργ(t0) := α_rad * T0^4
nγ(t0) := β_rad * T0^3
fγ(ν,t0) := 1 / (exp[(ħν)/(kB T0)] - 1)
return state_at(t0)

# -----------------------------
# CLOSED-FORM EVOLUTION (radiation era)
# -----------------------------
SolveRadiationEra(t ≥ t0):
# From Friedmann with ργ ∝ a^-4 ⇒ a(t) ∝ t^(1/2)
a(t) = a0 * (t / t0)^(1/2)
T(t) = T0 * (a0 / a(t)) = T0 * (t0 / t)^(1/2)
ργ(t)= α_rad * T(t)^4 = ργ(t0) * (a0 / a(t))^4
nγ(t)= β_rad * T(t)^3 = nγ(t0) * (a0 / a(t))^3
fγ(ν,t) = 1 / (exp[(ħν)/(kB T(t))] - 1)
return state_path[t0 → t]

# -----------------------------
# TERMINATION MARKERS (milestones)
# -----------------------------
Milestone_Recombination:
# transparency when T(t_rec) ≈ 3000 K (kB T ~ 0.26–0.3 eV)
find t_rec such that T(t_rec) ≈ 3000 kelvin
output CMB := fγ(ν, t_rec) redshifted thereafter

Milestone_BBN:
# light nuclei synthesis (t ~ 1–10^3 s, T ~ 0.1–1 MeV)
when T(t) in [0.1, 1] MeV/kB:
run NUCLEAR_NETWORK(H(t), T(t)) to yield {^1H, ^2H, ^3He, ^4He, trace ^7Li}
# -------------------------------------------------
# COSMOLOGY & BARYONS (carry-over + minimal add-ons)
# -------------------------------------------------
Ω_b := baryon_density_parameter
Ω_m := matter_density_parameter
H0 := Hubble_constant_today
μ := mean_molecular_weight # ≈ 0.59 (ionized), ≈ 1.22 (neutral)
m_p := proton_mass
γ_ad := adiabatic_index = 5/3

ρ_crit(t) := 3 H(t)^2 / (8 π G)
ρ_b(t) := Ω_b ρ_crit(t) # mean baryon density

# -------------------------------------------------
# LINEAR → NONLINEAR COLLAPSE (seeds → halos)
# -------------------------------------------------
σ(M) : RMS fluctuation at mass scale M
δ_c := 1.686 # spherical collapse threshold
D(t) : linear growth factor

HaloMassFunction(M,t):
# Press–Schechter (schematic)
ν := δ_c / (σ(M) D(t))
f_PS(ν) := sqrt(2/π) ν exp(-ν^2/2)
n_halo(M,t) := (ρ_m(t)/M) f_PS(ν) |d ln σ^{-1}/dM|
return n_halo

# -------------------------------------------------
# GAS COOLING & JEANS COLLAPSE
# -------------------------------------------------
c_s(T) := sqrt(γ_ad kB T / (μ m_p)) # sound speed
λ_J(ρ,T) := c_s(T) * sqrt(π / (G ρ)) # Jeans length
M_J(ρ,T) := (4π/3) ρ (λ_J/2)^3 # Jeans mass
t_ff(ρ) := sqrt(3π / (32 G ρ)) # free-fall time

CoolingFunctions:
Λ_H2(T,Z) # H2 cooling (primordial, Z~0)
Λ_atomic(T,Z) # atomic cooling (Lyα, metals if Z>0)
Λ_total(T,Z) := Λ_H2 + Λ_atomic

CollapseCriterion(cloud):
return [ M_cloud > M_J(cloud.ρ, cloud.T) and t_cool := (3/2) n kB T / Λ_total < t_ff(cloud.ρ) ]

# -------------------------------------------------
# STAR FORMATION LAW (Schmidt-like)
# -------------------------------------------------
ε_* := star_formation_efficiency ∈ (0,1)
SFR(ρ_gas) := ε_* ρ_gas / t_ff(ρ_gas)

# -------------------------------------------------
# INITIAL MASS FUNCTION (IMF)
# -------------------------------------------------
# Two regimes: metal-free (Pop III; top-heavy) and enriched (Pop II; Salpeter/Kroupa-like)
IMF_PopIII(M) := K_III M^{-α_III} on [M_min^III, M_max^III] # α_III ≈ 1–1.5, M ≈ 10–300 M_sun
IMF_PopII(M) := K_II M^{-α_II } on [M_min^II , M_max^II ] # α_II ≈ 2.35, M ≈ 0.1–100 M_sun

SelectIMF(Z):
if Z < Z_crit then return IMF_PopIII else return IMF_PopII
Z_crit := 10^{-4} Z_sun # critical metallicity for IMF transition

# -------------------------------------------------
# STELLAR EVOLUTION & YIELD KERNELS
# -------------------------------------------------
τ_*(M,Z) # stellar lifetime
R_SN(M,Z) # explosion type: core-collapse SNII / PISN / direct collapse
E_SN(M,Z) # kinetic energy per SN (∼10^51 erg for SNII; higher for PISN)
y_He(M,Z), y_C(M,Z), y_O(M,Z) # ejected mass yields

# Population-integrated (per unit stellar mass formed):
Y_X(Z) := ∫ y_X(M,Z) IMF(M|Z) dM / ∫ M IMF(M|Z) dM for X ∈ {He,C,O}
η_SN(Z):= ∫ 1_{explodes}(M,Z) IMF(M|Z) dM / ∫ M IMF(M|Z) dM # SN per solar mass

# -------------------------------------------------
# NUCLEOSYNTHESIS SUMMARY (inside stars)
# -------------------------------------------------
# H → He (pp-chain / CNO), then He-burning:
# 3α: 3 × ^4He → ^12C + γ
# ^12C + ^4He → ^16O + γ
# Heavier α-captures in massive stars produce Ne, Mg, Si... (beyond this phase’s scope)

# -------------------------------------------------
# FEEDBACK & METAL ENRICHMENT OPERATORS
# -------------------------------------------------
MixingVolume(E_SN, ρ):
# Sedov–Taylor scaling (schematic): radius R_ST ∝ (E_SN / ρ)^{1/5} t^{2/5}
return V_mix ∝ (E_SN/ρ)^{3/5} t_mix^{6/5}

Enrich(gas_cell, ΔM_* formed at Z):
IMF := SelectIMF(Z)
ΔM_He := Y_He(Z) ΔM_*
ΔM_C := Y_C (Z) ΔM_*
ΔM_O := Y_O (Z) ΔM_*
gas_cell.Metals += {He:ΔM_He, C:ΔM_C, O:ΔM_O}
gas_cell.M_gas -= (locked_up := (1 - return_fraction(Z)) ΔM_*) # long-lived remnants
gas_cell.T += heating_from(η_SN(Z) ΔM_* E_SN_avg)
gas_cell.Z = (total_metals_mass / gas_cell.M_gas)
return gas_cell

# -------------------------------------------------
# POPULATION LOOP (cosmic time stepping)
# -------------------------------------------------
Phase2_Evolve(t1 → t2, grid_of_gas):
for t from t1 to t2:
for cell in grid_of_gas:
if CollapseCriterion(cell):
ΔM_* = SFR(cell.ρ) Δt
Zloc = cell.Z
cell = Enrich(cell, ΔM_* at Zloc)
if cell.Z rises above Z_crit:
cell.IMF_regime := "Pop II"
return state(t2)

# -------------------------------------------------
# MILESTONES (observables)
# -------------------------------------------------
HeliumBudget(t):
# He mass made by stars (on top of primordial Y_p ≈ 0.246)
ΔY_*(t) := ∑cells ∫_0^t Y_He(Z_cell(t')) SFR_cell(t') dt' / M_b,universe

CarbonOxygenBudget(t):
ρ_C(t) := ∑cells Metals_C(cell,t) / Volume
ρ_O(t) := ∑cells Metals_O(cell,t) / Volume

MetallicityPDF(t):
P(Z,t) from mass-weighted histogram over cells

# Simple reionization tracker (ionizing photon budget):
ξ_ion(Z) # ionizing photons per stellar baryon (depends on IMF; Pop III high)
f_esc # escape fraction of ionizing photons
n_H # hydrogen number density
t_rec # recombination timescale (clumping-dependent)

dQ_HII/dt = (f_esc ∑cells ξ_ion(Z_cell) SFR_cell / (ρ_b/m_p)) - Q_HII / t_rec
Milestone_Reionization when Q_HII → 1

# -------------------------------------------------
# INITIAL & BOUNDARY CONDITIONS FOR PHASE 2
# -------------------------------------------------
InitializePhase2(state_from_Phase1 at t ≈ 10^6–10^8 yrs):
# Neutral gas after recombination; tiny metal-free fluctuations
for cells: set Z := 0, T := T_IGM(t), ρ := ρ_b(t) × (1+δ)
choose ε_*, IMF_regimes, yield tables {y_He,y_C,y_O}, η_SN, ξ_ion
return grid_of_gas
# -------------------------------------------
# INPUTS FROM PHASE 2 (enriched ISM)
# -------------------------------------------
Metals = {C,O,N,Si,Fe,P,S,...} # yields from Pop III/II SNe
DustFraction(Z) = f_dust * Z # metals condense into dust grains

# -------------------------------------------
# PLANET FORMATION KERNEL
# -------------------------------------------
# Collapse of molecular cloud → disk → planetesimals → planets

M_disk := f_disk * M_star # ~0.01–0.1 M_star
Σ_gas(r) ∝ r^{-p} # gas surface density
Σ_dust(r) = DustFraction(Z) Σ_gas(r)

Coagulation:
dN/dt = -σ v_rel N^2 # dust grains collide/stick

PlanetesimalGrowth:
dM/dt ≈ π R^2 ρ_gas v_rel # sweep-up

RunawayGrowth:
when M > M_crit: dM/dt ∝ M^2 # gravitational focusing

TerrestrialPlanetFormation:
M_planet ∼ 0.1–10 M_earth at r ~ 0.5–2 AU

InitializeEarth:
Composition = {Fe,Si,C,O,H,N,P}
State = {oceans, atmosphere, volcanism}
return Earth
# Basic feedstocks (assume delivered via atmosphere, volcanism, meteoritic infall):
Feedstocks = {H2O, CO2, CH4, HCN, NH3, PO4^{3-}, simple organics}

EnergySources = {UV_photons, lightning, geothermal, hydrothermal}

# Example prebiotic reactions:
HCN + formaldehyde → amino_acids
HCN + NH3 + UV → adenine (C5H5N5)
PO4^{3-} + ribose + base → nucleotide

ReactionRate(i→j) = k_ij [i]^α exp(-Ea/kB T) under EnergySources

Polymerization:
Nucleotides + Energy → short RNA-like oligomers

ReplicationCriterion:
if oligomer length L > L_crit and template-directed ligation occurs:
tag oligomer as "self-replicator"

ReturnSet = {nucleotides, short_RNA}
PhaseTransition_RNA:
Input: {nucleotides}
Process: random polymerization + template copying
Output: {self-replicating RNA-like strands}

RNA_World_Dynamics:
dN_self/dt = r_replication N_self - r_degradation N_self

DNA_Upgrade:
if enzymatic-like ribozymes evolve that produce deoxyribonucleotides:
DNA(t) emerges as more stable information carrier

Return: {first DNA-based genome analogues}
SelectionOperator(population):
fitness(seq) = replication_rate(seq) - degradation_rate(seq)
NextGen = mutate_and_replicate(population, fitness)
return NextGen
# INPUT: Earth formed, atmosphere dense (CO2, CH4, N2)

AtmosphereOpacity(t) = f(volcanic_gases, CO2, CH4, aerosols)

if AtmosphereOpacity < threshold:
VisibleObjects := {Sun, Moon, Stars}
Timekeepers := {day/night cycle, lunar months, stellar seasons}

DefineCycles:
Day(t) := 24h rotation of Earth
Month(t) := synodic cycle of Moon ≈ 29.5d
Year(t) := orbital period around Sun ≈ 365d

MarkCalendar:
For Homo ancestors: cycles → circadian rhythm, agricultural calendar, ritual observances
# INPUT: Oxygen-rich atmosphere, stable climate

t ≈ 540 Myr (Cambrian Explosion)
Environment := {O2 ~ 10–20%, oceans stable, ecosystems expand}

BiodiversityIndex(t):
dS/dt = speciation_rate - extinction_rate

SpeciationOperators:
MarineLife(t) → Fish(t)
Fish(t) → Amphibians(t) via land transition
Reptiles(t) → Birds(t), Mammals(t)

GeneticFramework:
AllSpecies.genome = DNA
DNA.mutation_rate = μ
Evolution(pop):
NextGen = mutate_and_select(pop, fitness(env_conditions))
return NextGen

Output:
Explosion of phyla, vertebrates, land animals, birds
# INPUT: Mammals evolved, primates branch, hominins emerge

t ≈ 200k yrs (Homo sapiens)

GenomicOperators:
Homo.genome = {99% chimp, 1% distinct}
Genes for FOXP2, brain expansion, symbolic language

CognitionModel:
ConsciousnessLevel(species) = f(neocortex_volume, symbolic_language, abstract_thought)

if ConsciousnessLevel(Homo_sapiens) > threshold:
DefineImageOfGod(Homo_sapiens):
properties = {self-awareness, morality, creativity, symbolic reasoning, spirituality}
return properties

CulturalEvolution:
ToolUse → Agriculture → Cities → Writing → Science → Religion

The Delaration of Independence 2.0

The unanimous Declaration of the fifty united States of America, When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another, and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness.–That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, –That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn, that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.–Such has been the patient sufferance of these States; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

  • He has refused his Assent to Laws, the most wholesome and necessary for the public good.
  • He has forbidden his Governors to pass Laws of immediate and pressing importance, unless suspended in their operation till his Assent should be obtained; and when so suspended, he has utterly neglected to attend to them.
  • He has refused to pass other Laws for the accommodation of large districts of people, unless those people would relinquish large sums of cash, and the right of Representation in the Legislature, a right inestimable to them and formidable to tyrants only.
  • He has called together legislative bodies at places unusual, uncomfortable, and distant from the depository of their public Records, for the sole purpose of fatiguing them into compliance with his measures.
  • He has dissolved government agencies and the agents of the people repeatedly, for opposing with manly firmness his invasions on the rights of the people.
  • He has refused for a long time, after such dissolutions, to cause others to be elected; whereby the Legislative powers, incapable of Annihilation, have returned to the People at large for their exercise; the State remaining in the mean time exposed to all the dangers of invasion from without, and convulsions within.
  • He has endeavoured to prevent the population of these States; for that purpose obstructing the Laws for Naturalization of Foreigners; refusing to pass others to encourage their migrations hither, and raising the conditions of new Appropriations of Lands.
  • He has obstructed the Administration of Justice, by refusing his Assent to Laws for establishing Judiciary powers.
  • He has made Judges dependent on his Will alone, for the tenure of their offices, and the amount and payment of their salaries.
  • He has erected a multitude of New Offices including DOGE, and sent hither swarms of Officers to harrass our people, and eat out their substance.
  • He has kept among us, in times of peace, Standing National Guard Armies without the Consent of our state legislatures.
  • He has affected to render the Military independent of and superior to the Civil power.
  • He has combined with others to subject us to a jurisdiction foreign to our constitution, and unacknowledged by our laws; giving his Assent to their Acts of pretended Legislation:
  • For Quartering large bodies of armed troops among us:
  • For protecting them, by pardon, from punishment for any Murders which they should commit on the Inhabitants of these States:
  • For cutting off our Trade with all parts of the world:
  • For imposing (Tariffs) Taxes on us without our Consent:
  • For depriving us in many cases, of the benefits of Habeas Corpus:
  • For transporting us beyond Seas to be jailed for pretended offences:
  • For taking away our Charters, abolishing our most valuable Laws, and altering fundamentally the Forms of our Governments:
  • For suspending our own Legislatures, and declaring themselves invested with power to legislate for us in all cases whatsoever.
  • He has abdicated Government here, by declaring us out of his Protection and waging War against us.
  • He has plundered our seas, ravaged our Coasts, burnt our towns, and destroyed the lives of our people.
  • He is at this time transporting large Armies of Mercenaries to compleat the works of death, desolation and tyranny, already begun with circumstances of Cruelty & perfidy scarcely paralleled in the most barbarous ages, and totally unworthy the Head of a civilized nation.
  • He has constrained our fellow Citizens, the National Guard and Department of Justice, to bear Arms against their Country, to become the executioners of their friends and Brethren, or to fall themselves by their Hands.
  • He has excited domestic insurrections amongst us, and has endeavoured to bring on the inhabitants of our frontiers, the merciless MAGA Savages, whose known rule of warfare, is an undistinguished destruction of all ages, sexes and conditions.

In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince with tiny hands and whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.

Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our Republican brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which, would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.

We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these States, solemnly publish and declare, That these United States are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States; that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the Cheeto Benito aka Vladdy’s Boy, aka Mango Mussolini, aka Our Fondling Father, aka Pumpin Spiced Stalin, aka Founding Farter, aka Farty Seven, aka The Lyin’ King, aka Don the Con, aka Tangerine Toddler, aka Orange Shitler, aka Diabeetus Maximus, aka Sleepy Don-zales, aka McDonald’s J Chump, aka Diaper Don, aka The Pedophile of the United States, and that all political connection between them and Don the Con, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor.

Knock on wood if you’re with me.

The Second Republic

It just occurred to me that France is on its Fifth Republic and America is still on its first. When I think about recent events in a larger historical context, I suppose the surprise isn’t that we’re rocketing towards authoritarianism, it’s that it took 250 years for it to happen.

The experiment of America’s democracy was to test whether it could be organized and implemented in such a way that it would not degenerate into the tyranny of absolutism, without the power to save the people from oppression, when tyranny was found in the person of a single orange despot.

The first step in solving any problem is recognizing there is one. The experiment of a government by the people, for the people; a government of liberty regulated by law; a government which led to the development of history’s largest economy, strongest military, and history’s greatest advancements in medicine, science, music, literature, art, and technology…has failed.

Although it seems counterintuitive, moving forward does not require that we continue to vote for wealthy, white, Democrat septuagenarians; That would only exacerbate the problem. Our chosen leaders are no longer instructed by the wisdom and experience stored in the Library of Congress, they are instructed only by greed and status; the kind of status that requires a zero-sum game be played, such that in order for them to rise, everyone else must fall. Moving forward requires a careful reexamination of the past 250 years and all the events and people that has brought us to now.

We should begin with the study of Washington, Jefferson, Madison, and Hamilton (the man, not to be confused with the musical). Hamilton was only twenty-one years old at the signing of the Declaration of Independence. Madison was twenty-five, Jefferson was thirty-three, and Washington was forty-four (the same age as Ben Affleck when he played Batman). I highlight this point because wisdom is not a function of age. Thus, we should seek out the reasoning behind the basic principles of free government that were embodied in the young authors of the Constitution. We should also seek out the mistakes committed by our progenitors. The mission is simple, guided by our love of our country, we should seek to improve upon what came before us for the future welfare of all mankind.

Let us examine the characteristics of the people, of all races and conditions, their social and religious sentiments, their education and tastes; their industries, their commerce, their local governments, their passions and prejudices, and their ethics and art; leaving nothing unnoticed that might afford an argument to prove that we can do better for our children and their children.
Finally, we must examine what the founding fathers did not foresee. Political equality is not a panacea for the evils of humanity. Love of country can be replaced by love of party and the violence of party spirit can replace the judgment of the wise, who are now subordinates to the prejudices of the ignorant.

Equality of conditions no longer exists. The Supreme Court ruling in Citizens United v Federal Election Commission has allowed the influence of money to take over State affairs. The transactions of business are now the road to power, and the financier has risen to a station of political influence. These conditions exist because citizens stopped participating in “Local Self-Government.” Independence from general control, except for the general welfare of all citizens, is the root and origin of all free republics. It is the antagonist of all political movements that threaten the rights of minorities. It is the public opinion formed in the independent expressions of towns and other small civil districts that is the real basis of free government. And it is the enemy of the most dangerous evil, the corruption of the ballot-box, from which the greatest troubles in our nation’s history are about to arise.

Rethinking AI + Productivity and Optimizing for the Right Variables

Gather ‘round children, it’s Uncle Leno’s story time. Once upon a time my company landed a very big important client-a “lighthouse client”. Upon closing the deal, the client told me: “We need this live in six weeks. After that, our entire IT department goes into lockdown to prepare for the holiday season.” “No problem”, I said, when in fact, there was un problema grande. You see, right at that very moment we had all hands on deck working on an even BIGGER client!

Working backwards from the six-week deadline, I worked out a project plan, and when I got to the start date, I realized that I had two days to design the entire site, get feedback, make edits, and get final design approval from all of the client’s stakeholders.

Hey, have I ever told you about the time I designed an entire retail website in 13 hours, by myself, in the dark, digitally freehand tracing icons and logos because the client couldn’t provide me with the creative assets? 😊

We launched on-time and the client was very grateful. But that’s not the happy ending. Roughly one year later, we received an email from the client. It was an email with a whole bunch of numbers and calculations which blew my mind. They client had told us, that our website was not only driving additional traffic, but conversions, to the tune of an incremental $600k per month during the holiday period. I saved that email, because 1. I like to drive my former co-workers insane by telling the story about the time I designed a website in 13 hours and 2. Because we did great work, and in doing so we delivered tremendous value for our client. The End. I told you that story to tell you this one.

The other day, through the magic of large language models and generative AI, I was able to crank out a four page document in a fraction of the time it might have taken me back in the 20th century. That’s all-in, including fact checking everything and even citations. It was good. In fact, it was good enough to get us a demo with the client. But, I say the following with sincere thoughts and a pure heart: it was good enough, but it could have been a lot better. I know this, because great work requires time, patience, and maybe a little bit of suffering. Kinda like cooking a good meal vs nuking pizza in the microwave. Now, just about every person who’s ever given me a performance review has told me “Don’t let the great be the enemy of the good”. Blah blah blah. (Apparently, I’m also bad at taking constructive criticism) Yes, AI has enabled me to be way more productive while yielding good (acceptable results). What’s the problem? If I use the AI button to do more and more of my work, and people keep giving me a banana, then I start to optimize for THOSE variables, and I think that’s a slippery slope. See what I did there? Slippery? Banana? Mario Kart? Am I on mute?

Here’s an example: I recently saw a screenshot of a tweet from one of the OG titans of the tech industry that read something to the effect of “AI has allowed my coders to crank out 12,000 lines of code per day! RAWR!” I’m paraphrasing 😂. Pardon my French, but what the fuck does that even mean? Is that really something to be proud of? Lines of code per minute? Congratulations! You closed out four tasks, two stories, and one skillion sprint points in 24 hours?

Can we deploy to prod now? Does it meet all of the requirements from the Product Manager and UI/UX/CX designers? How will the code perform under load testing? Or should I go to tell the CFO that our cloud bill is going to double next month? Is it secure? Is general counsel going to get a phone call from the California state attorney general because the website isn’t WCAG 2.1 AA compliant? Or shall we all sit around and sniff our own farts and be proud because of how much code was produced using AI?

Knock on wood if you’re with me.

I’m not suggesting we go back to using quill pens and punch cards. I like by GPT buddy…and I think she kinda like-likes me too 😉 But before hitting send, you gotta ask yourself, is this good or is it just good enough? Did I think it through? Are there any errors? Did I make reasonable assumptions about the future political and economic landscape? Can I validate how I came up with my estimates? Am I delivering value to my clients and stakeholders? Or I’m I just checking a box so people will stop scheduling meetings that should have been an email. Btw, those things don’t have to be mutually exclusive.

Sometimes, not all the time, and perhaps not even often, things should be hard. In my experience, it’s only when you’re banging your head on the wall trying to solve problems, that you become better at your craft and become a better version of yourself.

If we allow the easy button to replace all critical thinking and creativity, then we start to optimize for the wrong variables. And then we’re all going to be listening to endless derivatives of Machine Gun Kelly, Jelly Face, Sabrina and The Carpenters music produced by the DJ Khalid AI Agent, while sitting in bumper to bumper traffic because the US Department of Transportation had to issue a full stop to the entire autonomous vehicle network because the lead developer FORGOT to prompt the AI with “I need you to act like the kind of developer who delivers great work for their clients, so make sure to use the latest network encryption protocols and make sure there aren’t any backdoors that the KGB might be able to exploit. Know what I mean Vern?” To that end…

If anyone needs me I’ll be test driving a giant 2016 5.7L V8 Toyota Tundra later. Why, you may ask? Probably because I’m having an existential mid-life crisis. But also because Toyota used to over-engineer the crap out of their trucks, and although it doesn’t get great gas mileage, or have a fancy infotainment system, or car play, or lane departure sensors (let alone LiDAR sensors) AND I have to use a physical key to start the engine; I know that it will start when I need it to. It’s built like a tank, I can get parts from Advanced O’Reilly Zone, and it will run to at least 300k miles and probably more. And that to me is optimizing for the right variables.

Then again, maybe I’m just an old man yelling at the sky.

P.S. – No AI was used in this incoherent rant.